Senior Analyst - Risk Projection & Portfolio Profitability

Job description

We are looking for a sharp, analytically-driven Chartered Accountant to own ECL projection modelling, portfolio profitability analysis, and financier-level reporting across our Personal Loan (PL) and Loan Against Property (LAP) portfolios. This role sits at the intersection of credit risk, finance, and data - you will build forward-looking models that directly influence capital allocation, provisioning, and business strategy. You will work with a book size of ~8,000+ Cr across multiple financier partnerships (Sicreva, MAS, Piramal, SMFG, etc.), managing cohort-level ECL models, incremental NPA projections, and AUM waterfall analysis. **Key Responsibilities** **ECL & Provisioning Modelling (40%)** - Build and maintain cohort-based ECL models across 8 tenure segments (6M to 15 Yrs) - Model base runoff curves (PPMT amortization with foreclosure factor) and forward risk curves (NPA/Disb trajectories) - Project incremental NPA month-on-month by cohort, tenure, and financier - Maintain formula-driven Excel models with editable risk multipliers for scenario testing - Calibrate models to actual performance: reconcile projected vs observed AUM, NPA, and runoff - Handle partial month adjustments and MOB-based cutoffs for data quality **Portfolio PFinancier Reporting (30%)** - Compute financier-level P&L: revenue (interest + PF), cost of funds, credit cost, operating cost, net margin - Build AUM waterfall: opening stock + new disbursement - runoff - NPA = closing performing AUM - Track NPA stock, incremental NPA, and NPA% per financier, per tenure, per pool (Low-TS vs Pure) - Prepare Direct Assignment (DA) reporting - split ECL projections by financier share - Compute weighted average APR, yield, and spread by financier and product - Monthly board deck inputs: AUM trajectory, NPA outlook, profitability by segment **Stress Testing & Scenario Analysis (20%)** - Run risk multiplier scenarios: impact on NPA/AUM if risk increases 20%/50% on specific tenures - Assess impact of new product launches (e.g., 24M Low-TS) on portfolio risk profile - Model vintage curve analysis: compare cohort performance, identify improving/worsening trends - Evaluate collection efficiency impact on rolling DPD and bucket flow transitions (BX > B1 > B2 > NPA) - Support regulatory provisioning (IndAS 109 / RBI guidelines) with ECL stage classification **Data & Automation (10%)** - Work with Snowflake (SQL) for data extraction: VW\\_MIS\\_POS tables, repayment data, bureau data - Automate monthly data refresh for ECL models using Python/SQL - Validate data integrity: reconcile ECL outputs with actual POS views and risk dashboard numbers - Maintain documentation of model assumptions, forward curves, and calibration methodology **Required Qualifications** **Must Have** - CA Qualified (ICAI) with 2+ years post-qualification experience - Strong experience in credit risk / portfolio analytics / provisioning at an NBFC, bank, or fintech - Expert-level Excel - multi-sheet formula-driven models, PPMT/PMT functions, scenario tables - Working knowledge of SQL (Snowflake / BigQuery / Redshift) for data extraction - Understanding of NPA classification, DPD buckets, ECL staging (Stage 1/2/3), RBI/IndAS 109 norms - Experience with cohort analysis, vintage curves, and loss curve modelling **Good to Have** - Python (pandas, numpy) for data processing and model automation - Experience with Direct Assignment / co-lending structures and financier-level reporting - Familiarity with LAP/mortgage portfolio risk dynamics (longer tenure, secured) - Exposure to stress testing frameworks and ICAAP - Experience presenting to CXO / Board / rating agencies **What You Will Get** - Ownership: You own the ECL model end-to-end - your projections directly feed into business and board decisions - Visibility: Regular interaction with CXO leadership, financier partners, and rating agencies - Growth: Transition path to Risk Strategy Lead or CFO Office within 2-3 years - Scale: Portfolio growing at 15-20% MoM, 2 platforms (Kissht + Ring), 6+ financier partnerships - Tools: Snowflake data warehouse, Python analytics stack, advanced Excel modelling. **About Kissht:** Kissht, a Great Place to Work certified organization, is a consumer-first credit app that is transforming the landscape of consumer credit. As one of the fastest-growing and most respected FinTech companies, Kissht is a pioneer in data and machine-based lending. With over 15 million customers, including 40% from tier 2 cities and beyond, we offer both short and long-term loans for personal consumption, business needs, and recurring expenses. Founded by Ranvir and Krishnan, alumni of IIT and IIM, and backed by renowned investors like Endiya Partners, the Brunei Investment Authority, and the Singapore Government, Kissht is synonymous with excellence in the industry. Join us and be a part of a dynamic, innovative company that is changing the future of financial technology.