Principal Analyst, Forecasting

Job description

By clicking the “Apply” button, I understand that my employment application process with Takeda will commence and that the information I provide in my application will be processed in line with Takeda’s Privacy Notice and Terms of Use.  I further attest that all information I submit in my employment application is true to the best of my knowledge. Job Description The Future Begins Here At Takeda, we are leading digital evolution and global transformation. By building innovative solutions and future-ready capabilities, we are meeting the need of patients, our people, and the planet. Bengaluru, the city, which is India’s epicenter of Innovation, has been selected to be home to Takeda’s recently launched Innovation Capability Center. We invite you to join our digital transformation journey. In this role, you will have the opportunity to boost your skills and become the heart of an innovative engine that is contributing to global impact and improvement.   At Takeda’s ICC we Unite in Diversity Takeda is committed to creating an inclusive and collaborative workplace, where individuals are recognized for their backgrounds and abilities they bring to our company. We are continuously improving our collaborators journey in Takeda, and we welcome applications from all qualified candidates. Here, you will feel welcomed, respected, and valued as an important contributor to our diverse team Objectives / Purpose We are seeking a Principal Analyst to join Takeda's GCC Commercial Analytics & Insights (CA&I) organization in India as part of the Forecasting capability supporting International Business Units (IBU). This is a senior individual contributor and technical lead role for analysts who have mastered the full forecasting toolkit and now set the analytical standard for the pod. The Principal Analyst owns the most complex, high-visibility forecasts across Ex-US markets - including patient-based prevalence and disease-progression models, demand-based models, and hybrid launch and long-range forecasts - serves as the go-to methodology expert, and mentors’ junior analysts while remaining hands-on. The role is accountable for model quality, methodology selection, and the analytical credibility of forecasting output delivered into brand planning, S&OP, and portfolio cycles. Accountabilities Advanced Forecast Development and Technical Leadership • Own the design and delivery of the most complex and strategically important forecasts across multiple IBU markets and brands, spanning short-term tactical, long-term strategic (10+ years), in-line, pipeline and BD forecasts. • Serve as the pod's methodology expert across the full toolkit - patient-based models (prevalence, incidence, disease progression), demand-based models (trend, time-series, regression, exponential smoothing), and hybrid approaches - and set the standard for which method fits each business question and data context. • Lead sophisticated scenario, sensitivity, and risk analyses for competitive entries, LOEs, pricing and access changes, indication expansions, and cross-market events, quantifying uncertainty and framing decision options. • Define and enforce assumption documentation, version control, peer-review, and audit-trail standards for the pod, ensuring reproducibility and stakeholder-ready quality. • Own forecast accuracy governance - designing variance-tracking approaches, diagnosing drivers of deviation, and institutionalizing learnings into improved drivers and assumption libraries. Data, Methodology, and Innovation • Establish best practices for working with IQVIA MIDAS, local audit data, syndicated subnational data, claims, prescription data, and epidemiology sources to build robust market and patient views across Ex-US geographies. • Evaluate and introduce advanced statistical and machine learning techniques - including ARIMA, exponential smoothing, multivariate regression, Prophet, and other time-series methods - to improve forecast accuracy and efficiency. • Design reusable model templates, assumption libraries, and dashboard frameworks in Excel, Tableau or Power BI, and where applicable Python or R, that raise the productivity and consistency of the entire pod. Stakeholder Partnership and Influence • Act as a trusted analytical advisor to affiliate forecasting leads, brand teams, finance, and global IBU stakeholders, shaping how forecasting questions are framed and answered. • Translate complex model outputs into decision-grade narratives, slides, and assumption summaries for commercial, finance, and senior leadership audiences. • Represent the GCC forecasting pod as a subject-matter expert in brand planning, forecast review, S&OP, LRP, and ad-hoc strategic forums. Mentorship and Operational Excellence • Mentor Analysts and Senior Analysts through technical coaching, model reviews, and knowledge sharing, raising the analytical bar across the pod without formal people-management responsibility. • Drive automation and standardization initiatives across recurring forecasting workflows, applying AI and GenAI tools to accelerate assumption research, deviation reasoning, narrative generation, and documentation. • Contribute to onboarding, best-practice documentation, and capability-building programs for the GCC IBU forecasting team. Knowledge, Skills & Experience Education • Bachelor's Degree required in Statistics, Economics,