Senior Analyst, Forecasting

Job description

By clicking the “Apply” button, I understand that my employment application process with Takeda will commence and that the information I provide in my application will be processed in line with Takeda’s Privacy Notice and Terms of Use.  I further attest that all information I submit in my employment application is true to the best of my knowledge. Job Description The Future Begins Here At Takeda, we are leading digital evolution and global transformation. By building innovative solutions and future-ready capabilities, we are meeting the need of patients, our people, and the planet. Bengaluru, the city, which is India’s epicenter of Innovation, has been selected to be home to Takeda’s recently launched Innovation Capability Center. We invite you to join our digital transformation journey. In this role, you will have the opportunity to boost your skills and become the heart of an innovative engine that is contributing to global impact and improvement.   At Takeda’s ICC we Unite in Diversity Takeda is committed to creating an inclusive and collaborative workplace, where individuals are recognized for their backgrounds and abilities they bring to our company. We are continuously improving our collaborators journey in Takeda, and we welcome applications from all qualified candidates. Here, you will feel welcomed, respected, and valued as an important contributor to our diverse team OBJECTIVES / PURPOSE We are seeking a forecaster to join Takeda's GCC Commercial Analytics & Insights (CA&I) organization in India as part of the Forecasting capability supporting International Business Units (IBU). This individual contributor role is responsible for building, maintaining, and evolving multiple forecast types across Ex-US markets - including short-term in-market demand forecasts, long-term strategic forecasts, patient-based epidemiology forecasts, and launch and event scenarios - in partnership with affiliate forecasting leads. The Senior Analyst is accountable for forecast model integrity, assumption discipline, and the business relevance of outputs delivered into brand planning, S&OP, and portfolio cycles. ACCOUNTABILITIES Forecast Model Development and Delivery • Build and maintain a portfolio of forecasts across multiple IBU markets and brands, spanning short-term tactical forecasts (24-36 months), long-term strategic forecasts (10+ years), in-line product forecasts, and pipeline and BD forecasts. • Apply the appropriate forecast methodology to each disease area, including patient-based approaches (prevalence, incidence, disease progression), demand-based approaches (trend, time-series, regression, exponential smoothing), and hybrid models that integrate both. • Conduct scenario and sensitivity analyses for market events, competitive entries, LOEs, pricing changes, indication expansions, and access scenarios across IBU geographies. • Maintain rigorous assumption documentation, version control, and audit trails for every forecast cycle, supporting reproducibility and review by affiliate and global stakeholders. • Track forecast accuracy across cycles, perform variance analyses against actuals, and translate learnings into improved drivers and assumptions for the next cycle. Data, Methodology, and Tooling • Work with IQVIA MIDAS, local audit data, syndicated subnational data, claims, prescription data, and epidemiology sources to build robust market and patient views across Ex-US geographies. • Apply statistical and machine learning techniques where appropriate - including ARIMA, exponential smoothing, regression (single and multivariate), Prophet, and other time-series methods - to enhance forecast accuracy for in-market brands. • Build forecast outputs and tracking dashboards in Tableau or Power BI; structure model files in Excel and, where applicable, in Python or R for automation and reproducibility. Stakeholder Partnership and Communication • Partner with affiliate forecasting leads, brand teams, finance, and global IBU stakeholders to clarify intake, align on methodology, and walk through outputs, assumptions, risks, and scenarios. • Translate model outputs into clear narratives, decision-grade slides, and assumption summaries tailored to commercial, finance, and senior leadership audiences. • Represent the GCC forecasting pod in cross-functional working sessions for brand planning, S&OP, LRP, and ad-hoc strategic questions. Process Improvement and Operational Excellence • Identify opportunities to automate recurring forecast updates, standardize templates across markets and brands, and build reusable assumption libraries that improve speed and consistency. • Contribute to building capability within the GCC pod, including knowledge sharing, documentation of best practices, and onboarding support for new analysts. • Leverage AI and GenAI tools to accelerate data preparation, assumption research, deviation reasoning, and narrative generation within forecasting workflows. Knowledge, Skills & Experience Education • Bachelor's Degree required in Statistics, Economics, Data Science, Life Sciences, Computer Science, Engineering, or a related quantitative field. • Advanced degree (Master's or MBA) in Analytics, Economics, Data Science, Business, or a related quantitative field is strongly preferred. • Relevant certifications in